[外电] On Allen Craig, the Magic Man
奇怪的是Craig在RISP中呈现更大的击球力道,可是在降低了挥棒速度是不可能达到的。当垒包空的时候,他三振20%,RISP的时候 下降到13%以下,这下降的幅度相当大,也让某些人相信Craig是真的不太一样。 (4) The clutch factor 四、关键时刻因素 Read that a guy does well with runners in scoring position, and you’re going to see him as clutch. You might want to believe he’s just able to focus extra hard when the pressure is on, that he can achieve a higher level. According to FanGraphs, Craig owns a 140 career wRC in high-leverage situations, and a 136 wRC in the other situations. According to Baseball-Reference, Craig owns an .879 career OPS in high-leverage situations, and an .849 OPS in the other situations. Those differences are, basically, too small to worry about. To whatever extent Craig’s performance with runners in scoring position has to do with his being clutch, by other measures he hasn’t been particularly clutch or unclutch. By WPA, his career Clutch score is actually slightly negative, not that that’s something we talk about often. 看到一位打者在RISP上表现相当好,你会把他视为关键打者。 我推测红雀球团有团队负责这些统计工作,但如果你问他们他们大概都只会耸耸肩。 这让我们思考到底Craig是怎么办到的? Craig, of course, is simply a good hitter. Good hitters deliver good hits. But over his career, with runners in scoring position, he’s batted .392. He’ s slugged .635, and if you put it all together, you get a 194 wRC . Moreover, Craig just recently passed 400 career situational plate appearances, so we’ re not talking about a one-season fluke. What Craig’s done is the kind of thing that gets an analyst’s attention. While no firm conclusion is offered below — I haven’t solved the Allen Craig mystery, either — this begs to be investigated. Here are some assorted points. This is the result of a deeper look into Craig’s career splits, born of a reluctance to just simply say he’ s going to regress. Craig是非常棒的打击好手,而好打者会击出安打。 According to Baseball-Reference, with the bases empty, Craig has hit 56% of his balls in play up the middle. With runners in scoring position, that jumps to 64%. That supports the idea that Craig has just been looking to make contact and spray the ball. The strikeout rates also support the same idea. More confusing: Craig hits for more power with runners in scoring position. So if he’s cut down his swing, he hasn’t hit like it. Craig hasn’t traded power for contact and spraying. He’s gained contact and power and spraying. 根据BR的资料,Craig在垒上无人时,球在中间的落点是56%,垒上有人升高至64%。 (5) The spray chart 五、打击落点图 As you can imagine, Allen Craig has been asked about Allen Craig, before. Here ’s an article from the USA Today from not too far back. Said Craig: Craig曾被USA Today访问过,以下是他所说的: “The name of the game is giving yourself the best chance to succeed,” he says. “If you’re trying to pull the ball in that (RISP) situation, you leave yourself susceptible to anything away. It’s always good to keep the ball in the middle of the field. That’s not to stay I never try to pull the ball with runners in scoring position, but for the most part, it’s trying to hit the ball hard on a line somewhere.” 如果你打算在RISP的时候强拉,会容易被吊外角,而把球打在球场中间一直是 件好事,但我不是说我不会在RISP的时候强拉,但是大部份我都是试着把球打的强劲。 The other night, Craig batted in the bottom of the seventh in a game between the St.Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds were leading 5-4, but the Cardinals had the bases loaded with two outs. J.J. Hoover threw Craig a first-pitch fastball, up and away, and Craig swung and took it up and away for a deciding grand slam. For the Cardinals, it’s been a magical season when it comes to runners in scoring position, and no one’s had more magic than Craig. And for him, this is just more of the same. Which leads one to wonder: What’s going on with Allen Craig, anyway? 几天前红雀跟红人大战的七局下半,当时比数5:4红人领先,2人出局,但红雀攻占满垒, J.J. Hoover投出第一球就被Craig送出全垒打墙之外。你可能会相信这类打者 有能力在压力情况下更专注、可以达成更高的打击水平。 Craig达成的成绩让分析家非常感兴趣 ,虽然下方文章并没有提供确切的解答(我还没解出这谜团)。 Craig并没有把他的炮瓦跟contact做交换,他同时提升了contact跟炮瓦。 08/29 14:08
JeffMathis:... 08/29 14:38
jardon:红鸟的1B没一个是好惹的 08/29 15:30
CGary:这样是说Pujols离开后没有暗号了嘛? XD 08/29 15:43
iso903306:Power up 08/29 16:20
ben101068:最后一句恍然大悟!? (大误 08/29 18:53
Sparksfly:Push 08/29 19:00
kusami:最后一句顺便解释Pujols去天使的表现XD? 08/29 20:45          。但是他的生涯中RISP的打击率 高达.392,长打率则是.635,而wRC :194。 This is a point neither for nor against sustainability. Craig isn’t the first player to trim his strikeouts when there are runners to drive in. (2) The sample 二、样本 Let’s just put this out there: This is Craig’s fourth season in the majors. When a guy has been showing a trend over four seasons in the majors, one is inclined to believe in it. After all, four years is a lot, right? Sure, but we ’re not looking at overall performance — we’re looking at splits, and Craig just passed 400 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. He has the equivalent of a fraction of one whole year in that split, so we can read into it only so much. Over a stretch of 393 plate appearances between 2011 and 2012, Craig posted a .979 OPS. Over his next 416 plate appearances, he posted a .770 OPS. The cliche is that baseball analysts are always talking about fluctuation and randomness. Fluctuation is real, and it’s important for us to understand and appreciate. (简单说作者认为生涯有400个RISP打席的样本 相当够了) (3) The complication 三、复杂度 (这段有点难翻 ) Over more than 400 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Craig’ s batted .392. That is, of course, extraordinary. If one were to look for explanations, maybe Craig’s gotten easier pitches to hit. Maybe he thrives against pitchers working out of the stretch, and maybe he’s fond of different defensive alignments. Maybe Craig just mentally bears down when there’s someone else to bring home. But then there’s this: Craig has batted 268 times with a runner on first. He ’s hit .254, with a .710 OPS. His strikeout rate is the same as it is with nobody on. If there’s something about different pitches, we don’t see it here. If there’s something about pitchers working out of the stretch, we don ’t see it here. Hitting with a runner on first doesn’t have the same feeling as hitting with runners in scoring position, so this leaves open the psychological possibilities. But Craig’s been worse with a man on first than he’s been with no men on. That’s difficult to reconcile with a belief that we’re not observing interesting randomness. 当1垒有人时,Craig打击率.254、OPS:0.710,三振率也跟垒上无人时一样。 如果你改用OPS搜寻,Craig成绩也是在历史排行榜的前段班--就在Pujols跟Votto之间。根据Baseball- Reference,Craig生涯在高强度的情况OPS:.879,其他情况是.849 这些差异,基本上来说都太小了。对大部分的球员来说,在RISP的情况下三振是更多的,但Craig不同。在今年跟去年,他RISP的打击率都是全联盟第一,而且他是史上RISP打击率最高 的男人。而红雀GM则认为这些数据终究会趋近平衡, 他甚至不认为这是球队组织的计画,他的回答方式就像FanGraphs的作家,而且他也不 会这样作,甚至在目前情况下是可持续的。 当垒包上没人,Craig击出42%的滚地球,当RISP时,他也击出42%的滚地球,其实没有差距 ,但眼尖的人已经发现他的三振比例不一样了。另外他生涯刚刚在RISP突破400个打席 ,所以我们不是要讨论一个球季侥幸成绩。 (1) The strikeouts 一、三振 When you see a split that’s unusually big, you wonder if it’s capturing something real. When you wonder if it’s capturing something real, you look for other indicators, signs of a changed approach or whatnot. With the bases empty, Craig has hit grounders 42% of the time. With runners in scoring position, he’s hit grounders 42% of the time. There’s nothing there. But some people have already observed the difference in strikeouts. With the bases empty, Craig has struck out 20% of the time. With runners in scoring position, he’s struck out fewer than 13% of the time, and that’s a significant gap. That’s an increase in balls in play, and that could be the result of a deliberate process. The drop in strikeouts convinces some people that Craig really is quite different. 当你看到其中一项分项成绩相当不寻常,你就会猜想是不是真的有获取到真实的事情, 当你想是不是有获取到真的事情,你会去找寻其他指标。 Craig doesn’t think he’s a different hitter with runners in scoring position. The guy in charge of the Cardinals figures this’ll eventually all balance out. He didn’t even try to suggest this is part of some organizational plan. Mozeliak spoke of his own team like a FanGraphs writer, and you figure he wouldn’t have done so if he believed even a little bit that this situational success is sustainable. Presumably, the Cardinals have investigated, being the team responsible for all this statistical confusion. Ask them and they’ll shrug their shoulders. Craig并不认为他在RISP中是不同的球员。 根据Fangraphs,Craig生涯在高强度的情况 wRC 是140,其他情况是136。而从一个分析方法(WPA)来检视Craig的关键表现, Clutch score甚至还是些微的负数,并非我们看到的情况。 And the Cardinals’ general manager, John Mozeliak, speaking not specifically about Craig, but about his team: “At some point, you typically expect some regression to the mean or some normalcy,” says Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak, who is among the new breed of GMs who place great value on analyzing statistics. “Having it be sustained year in and year out isn’t a good strategy. But it could defy and be a one-year outlier.” [...] “I don’t think from a statistical approach you can say this is sustainable for additional years,” Mozeliak says. “For us, enjoy the ride as we take it. ” John Mozeliak说:有时候你会预期到回归平均值或是正常;我不觉得从统计上来看这 可以持续,但对我们而言,就在有这种表现下继续享受吧。 对红雀来说今年球季在RISP的打击率相当不可思议,其中Craig更是佼佼者。 —– This is the part I hate writing: Allen Craig has a really interesting career split. It’s my belief that, over time, things will balance out. That’s such a stereotypical analyst perspective, but the fact is that most things regress, and regression spoils a lot of would-be fascinating stories. Craig, for his part, denies his approach changes much depending on the situation. The guy who gave Craig his contract doesn’t think there’s more to good hitting than good hitting. The only reason to believe something’s different is what the numbers say, and the numbers are based on limited samples. And so on and so forth — you know this part by heart. Allen Craig, at least, has made a lot of people curious. Allen Craig, at least, has caused people to notice. Allen Craig, at least, has left me not completely certain he’s going to regress all the way. I don’t know if there ’s really something about Craig, but I do know that I don’t know that. And that has to count for something. (作者最后相信Craig的成绩终究会趋近平衡,但他不确定是不是真的会这样) === 其实下方讨论很有趣,美国乡民认为是红雀2B跑者 偷暗号XDDDD -- 9/13/12 http://rays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24737137&c_id=mlb Lew Ford K Adam Jones K Chris Davis K strikes out the side -- ※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From:
traurigkeit:为RISP打击而生的男人! ! 08/29 11:29
nolander:推偷暗号XD 08/29 11:31
ck3300511:RBI Machine 08/29 11:32
ck3300511:可以借转愤怒鸟板吗吗 08/29 11:32
JakeMcGee:请转阿XDD 但是翻译的不是很好 哈哈 08/29 11:38
searoar:还有个影片在讨论垒上有人你想要Craig还是Votto 08/29 11: 38
pray7th: 08/29 11:39
Kobelephants:新世代无冕王诞生了 08/29 11:42
lowPHkiller:...刚好发了一篇Votto XDD 08/29 11:44
Narancia:还以为你们说好的 08/29 11:44
lowPHkiller:如果是季后赛 当然选桂格 打点进来比较重要 08/29 11:52 ck3300511:转录至看板 Cardinals 08/29 11:52
seeyou1002:Craig 因为等等他会死在本垒前 08/29 12:02
JakeMcGee:seeyou1002大 你有看上次的文章齁XDD 08/29 12:06
EEERRIICC:跑垒GG 08/29 12:06
mrkey:偷暗号没什么好说的吧这也是"基本功"之一 08/29 12:23
Pujols5:不止Craig 垒上有人OPS国联前十名有四个是红雀的 08/29 12 :26
Pujols5:然后总共有六个人在三十名内这根本中邪阿 08/29 12: 26
JakeMcGee:所以国外乡民才说红雀整队狂偷暗号阿XDD 08/29 12:33
Ybrother:合理怀疑偷暗号!!! 08/29 12:34
mika0730:好文 推! 08/29 12:56
evilvens: 08/29 13:12
ck3300511:这篇跟下面的人气差好多 桂格果然低调 08/29 13:23
Hans14:leave yourself susceptible to anything away 易被吊外角 08/29 13:26
JakeMcGee:感谢Hans14大补充 08/29 13:28 ※ 编辑: JakeMcGee 来自: (08/29 13:28)
subaruband:King of RISP! 08/29 13:30
catsondbs:推偷暗号 xddddddd 08/29 13:49
TSbb:红鸟,不意外。 To get back to the main point, what we see here is the slightest hint of the idea that something is different in Craig’s head when there are runners on second and/or third. So that could be a thing. (6) The words 六、文字 On the other hand, from the same article: “I feel like I have the same focus every time,” says Cardinals All-Star slugger Allen Craig, the game’s best hitter with RISP. “I’ve just had a lot of opportunities with runners on base this year. It’s nothing I try to explain.” Craig说:我每次打击都是一样专注,我只是有很多RISP的打击机会。 这支持了Craig之前访问中的谈话(增加contact和把球打的强劲),前面提到的三振率 也同样支持了这个论点。 I’m not going to argue passionately otherwise, but I’ll note that Craig’s strikeout split isn’t unprecedented. I looked at all the active players with at least 250 plate appearances with the bases empty and with runners in scoring position. I calculated their split strikeout rates, and the correlation between them is .92. Here are the top five guys with the biggest strikeout-rate reductions, in percentage points: Craig的三振差别性成绩并没没有先例,我在现役打者在垒上无人跟RISP都至少250个打席 的调查中,上述2种情境的三振%的相关系数是0.92,另外也找出了三振%差距最大的5个人 Travis Ishikawa, -7.4 percentage points with runners in scoring position (K%) Allen Craig, -7.1 Travis Snider, -6.9 Jonny Gomes, -5.6 Wilson Valdez, -5.5 Jeff Mathis ranks sixth. I don’t know what this list is telling me, if it’s telling me anything at all. For most players, strikeout rates with runners in scoring position look a lot like strikeout rates with the bases empty. Craig’ s been different, but Travis Ishikawa has been just as different. (And do we have any particular opinions about Travis Ishikawa?) Mathis排名第六