[外电] Joey Votto: Run Producer
有些球在RISP时,Votto会挥击,同样的有些球在RISP时,是Phillips不应该挥的。 There are ways that Joey Votto could be a better baseball player, because he isn’t perfect. There have been pitches he’s taken with runners in scoring position that he probably could’ve hit. Likewise, with runners in scoring position, there have been pitches Brandon Phillips shouldn’t have swung at. This is just who Votto is, and there’s little sense in complaining about an elite player when he’s performing at an elite level. There are people who don ’t particularly care for Votto’s patience. There is a person with a .435 OBP and a 159 wRC . One of those is Joey Votto. Defer to the guy who reaches base all the time. He probably has the hitting thing figured out. 有很多面向来说Votto都可以是更好的棒球明星,但是人非完美的。 *注一:作者写这篇时比赛还没结束,最后这场Votto上场打击四次,领了3BB,回来得2分 If you haven’t read the arguments, you’ve probably at least heard about them. Votto has been a polarizing player for the Reds, because he’s drawn a ton of walks in run-scoring situations. With runners in scoring position, he’ s walked more than a quarter of the time. The end result is that Votto has an underwhelming RBI total, and he’s supposed to be in the lineup to produce runs. In theory, run-producers are supposed to swing the bat. Run-producers like Brandon Phillips. One’s instinct is to think this is absurd — and it is pretty silly — but we might as well dig in for a few minutes. Are people warranted to be frustrated by Joey Votto’s patient approach? 如果你还没看过这些讨论,你也可能听过这些了。他并没有 出现更多炮瓦,而且更容易挥空。所以就是要球员得分,但要得分就要 其他人帮忙。 这其中的差距实在太小,所以没人注意到。 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vottobb2.png
He took the first strike. He swung at the second, evening the count 2-and-2. But that was followed by a low ball and a high ball. Neither deserved a swing, so Votto didn’t — and he took his base. The runner on first moved to second, and the next batter went deep. For the second time in two innings, Votto scored. Votto连看三球(第三球是好球),然后挥第四球,接着5、6球一低一高,选到保送。 Votto是红人队上相当极端的球员,因 为他在RISP的时候选一大堆保送,在RISP的情况下,他保送占打席的比例超过1/4,这结 果就是他的打点多让人"印象深刻",而且他的棒次应该是要打打点的。 BABIP In-zone(好球带内): .389 Out-of-zone(好球带外): .318 Isolated slugging In-zone: .317 Out-of-zone: .100 Contact In-zone: 83% Out-of-zone: 67% When Votto has expanded his zone, he hasn’t been a disaster. But he also hasn ’t been particularly productive. He certainly hasn’t hit for much power, and he’s had a tendency to whiff. With more swings, Votto would generate the occasional RBI hit, and people would notice. They wouldn’t always notice the increased number of outs, but that would happen and that would matter. There are people who want more flash, more explosions. Votto, instead, prefers the slow burn. 当Votto放宽他的好球带,他其实还不算灾难,但是他并没有特别多的产生。而且在多挥击好球的情况下是不可能 不增加挥坏球的机会的,而这点正是人们不希望Votto做出来的表现。 保送对于得分是有正向帮助的,因为保送代表多跑者,而多跑者代表多得分。 Right now, Votto’s .487 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position ranks him fourth in baseball. For good measure, he’s also batting .318, but that comes with a whole lot of bases on balls, and bases on balls seldom drive runners home. The argument for swinging more is you should expand your zone a little bit with runners in scoring position, because hits become extra valuable. The belief is that Votto is good enough to do that. The argument for sticking with the patience is that swinging at worse pitches will lead to worse results, and drawing a walk is hardly a negative. It’s not up to Votto to drive in all the runs; he’s part of a lineup, after all, and he can add an extra baserunner for the next guy. 现在Votto在RISP的情况下上垒率是.487。但是Votto只是让火缓慢的烧。 To give a face to the pro-patience crowd, here’s Votto: “All I want to do is do what I can,” said the 29-year-old first baseman who heard no complaints in 2010 when he took 91 walks and won the National League MVP. “Sometimes I take a pitch, but I might be timing a pitch and looking at it for a future swing. Sometimes I take a pitch in the middle of the plate and people say, ‘Ah, man, how can he take that pitch with runners in scoring position?’ Well, if I don’t see that pitch why swing. And it might result in a better swing later in the at-bat and a better day in general.” Votto说:我想做的都是我能做到的。接下来是Votto第2次上场打击,1人在垒,他又选了一个保送。这就是Votto的安逸区(XD),如果把人拖离这区域都会降低他的效率。当他多挥棒,他可能会产生更多的RBI(人们会注意), 但是他们不会注意到那些多出来的出局,而这些出局可能相当重要。 As a final helping of information, Votto has actually been slightly more aggressive this season with runners in scoring position. With runners not in scoring position, he’s swung at 39% of pitches, and 21% of pitches out of the zone. With runners in scoring position, he’s swung at 41% of pitches, and 24% of pitches out of the zone. The differences are so small that they’ re hardly remarkable. But what he is with the bases empty, he is with the bases not empty. That’s Votto’s comfort zone, and taking a guy out of his comfort zone will reduce his effectiveness. Votto’s comfort zone, as we all know, has led to some absolute OBP silliness. 最后提到,其实这球季Votto已经比先前在RISP上更为积极了。 而Votto的安逸区就是对于OBP的坚持。不管是垒包清空还是相反,Votto都做相同 的事情。从另一方面来说他的打击率也高达.318,这表 示他保送的非常非常多,而保送很少会导致打点的产生。 Votto在这天打了3次(注一),然后他 3次都选到保送。有时候我等一球,是为了看投手投球时间间距,接着 等待未来的挥击。有时候我等一球,而这球刚好投在红中,有人就会说:「嘿!这时候 (RISP)你怎么能放过这球? 」。 对于打者而言,坏球永远是好结果,挥坏球可能有好结果,但更常见到的是错误。 然后下个打者把球送出球场外,Votto连续2局得分。 不能指望都靠Votto打回所有RBI,他是打线中的一员,而保送可以为下个打者制造多的 跑者。但事实上他已经选择挥击他想要挥的球, 所以挥击其他好球只是会造成更糟糕的结果。有些人偏好火光、 爆炸。 The simple fact is Votto is both disciplined and good. Because of the discipline, he’ll work a lot of counts and he’ll draw a lot of walks. Because of the talent, sometimes he’ll be pitched around in bigger spots. This year, with runners in scoring position — and excluding intentional walks — Votto has seen the fourth-lowest strike rate in baseball. That’s strike rate, not zone rate, but clearly, Votto isn’t seeing pitchers aggressively pound the zone. They’re aware of what he can do, and they don’ t want for him to beat them. 基本的事实就是Votto选球非常好,因为选球好,让投手投多球,然后他选一大堆保送。 今年在RISP下(包含故意敬远),Votto打击时看到的好球比例是第四低的。 这表示Votto并没有看到投手积极的把球投进好球带内。 等球的争论点是,去追打坏球会导致更糟的结果,而选BB几乎是没有负面影响的。 http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vottobb1.png
Those three red circles are swings. Votto didn’t go up there and take everything — he swung at the first pitch, and he even chased a ball out of the zone. But there wound up being a lot more balls out of the zone, so Votto took his walk and didn’t expand his zone too much. Here’s Votto’s second plate appearance from Wednesday. With one on, he drew a walk. 三个红圈圈是他挥棒的。是有些人不在意他在打击区的耐心。 然而调整过后Phillips跟Votto两人在RISP中对球队的贡献是几乎相同的。就算Votto选到保送,他一样是在制造得分,只是非常不明显。 有个人有.435的上垒率外加wRC :159,这人就是Joey Votto。 Here’s Votto’s first plate appearance from Wednesday. With two on, he drew a walk. 这里是Votto昨天第一个打席,2人在垒,他选了保送。没有跑者在得点圈上时, 他挥击39%的球,其中21%是好球带以外;但在RISP上他挥击41%的球,24%在好球带之外。 Baker很明显的表达,他希望Votto是上述的后者(打RBI回来的人) Baker再说:他(Votto)以前做过,所以不是说他不能做到。 For all the talk about how Phillips has been a better run-producer than Votto, here’s something to consider. Absolutely, Phillips has been clutch in 2013. He’s timed his hits for pretty critical spots. With runners in scoring position, Phillips has posted a 2.1 Win Probability Added in 169 plate appearances. Votto, meanwhile, has posted a 1.8 WPA in 152 plate appearances. Adjust to give them the same denominator and there’s hardly any difference. In terms of actually helping the winning cause with runners in scoring position, Votto and Phillips have been just about equally valuable. This despite Votto’s walks and Phillips’ RBI. 每个说法说Phillips是比Votto为更好的得分制造机,都必须考虑一些东西。 当精英球员表现出菁英水准,这些抱怨没多大意义。 If I wanted, I could just leave it at this: Votto presently ranks fifth in baseball in runs scored. That’s not because of his outstanding speed, and it ’s not because he’s constantly driving himself in like Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera. Like Baker said, you need to have someone to score, and someone to help him score. Even when Votto walks, he’s still producing runs, just less visibly. This is pretty elementary stuff. Walks have a positive run value, because walks mean baserunners and baserunners mean more runs. 如果我要的话,我会留下这段话:Votto现在是全联盟得分第5名,并不是因为他有很快 的跑垒速度,他也不像C.Davis跟M.Cabrera。第1次在第1局,当时2人在垒,最后他也回来得到1分;然后他在第2局 再选保送(垒上有1人),结果又回来得1分;接着第4局,他在垒上无人情况下又被保送。 9分都是Wainwright的责失, 而偶然的Hernandez跟Wainwright就在同天爆炸。 当然的Phillips今年是比Votto为更为关键的红人打者,RISP下Phillips在169个打击 机会中缴出了2.1的Win Probability Added(WPA,胜出机率提升指数),而Votto在152 次机会中则是1.8。他挥第一球,然后他甚至挥了一个偏离好球带的坏球,最后他 选到了保送。就像Baker说的你需要球员得分,而有些人 是帮助他得分。 理论上打点制造者应该是要挥棒的,就像Brandon Phillips一样。 -- 9/13/12 http://rays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24737137&c_id=mlb Lew Ford K Adam Jones K Chris Davis K strikes out the side -- ※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: ※ 编辑: JakeMcGee 来自: (08/30 11:32)
ptttrk:他生涯到底要面对这些问题几次XDD 08/30 11:35
eon4:居然叫世界上最会上垒的人去追打坏球,荒谬至极。 Using information at Brooks Baseball, I dug into Votto’s career. Here are some relevant splits: 从Brooks Baseball,我看了Votto的生涯成绩。多挥棒的争论是因为多打带来 更多价值,在RISP下你必须将你的击球区域过大一些,而Votto的打击是可以做到这点的。 人们真的对Votto沉默的方式沮丧吗?但是人的本能都觉得这样是相当荒谬的。投手都惧怕Votto能做到的,而且 他们不希望他击败他们。 In theory, Votto could try to swing at more strikes with runners in scoring position. In reality, he’s already selecting the strikes he deems to be most hittable, so swinging at other strikes would presumably yield worse results. And it’s almost impossible to increase swings at strikes without also increasing swings at balls, and that’s something people shouldn’t want Votto to do. For a hitter, a ball is always a good result. Swinging at a ball can lead to a better result, but more often, it’ll be a small or large mistake. 理论上Votto在RISP情况下应该挥击更多球。 08/30 11:35
jardon:菲利普表示 08/30 11:51
jardon:还有他几乎不会打成内飞这点超威 08/30 11:53
jardon:其实他就是把本垒板纪律做的很好的代表 08/30 11:55
kolay:所以只能说米糕是火星人了... 08/30 11:58
sdiaa:应该把VOTTO排二棒... 08/30 11:58
specialwei:这问题ㄧ直被提到 08/30 12:04
specialwei:每个选手本来就有自己的喜好按照自己的喜好做事没错吧 08/30 12 :05
specialwei:这么高层次的比赛心理素质很重要选自己打击方法没错 08/30 12:06
specialwei:效果也还不错何必ㄧ定要照别人讲的走上垒率 08/30 12 :07
specialwei:套ㄧ魔球的台词:He can on base 08/30 12:08
Alexander13:会上垒也要被嫌…WTF 08/30 12:13
TSbb:这就是直观法很容易出现的错误,事实上他等于做球给下一棒 08/30 12:15
TSbb:而且还是出局数没损失 08/30 12:16
gundam00:不知道有没有数据可以显示垒上越多人投手被安打率提高? 08/30 12:24
tyrone0923:感觉就是还有传统数据派的看不惯Votto的打击模式 08/30 12: 26
CGary:传统数据派也是莫名其妙:slugger本来就会设定自己的strike 08/30 12:33
CGary:zone做攻击,votto的strike zone 只是刚好跟主审那个一样XD 08/30 12: 34
CGary:Votto:这样选出四坏是怪我啰? :P 08/30 12:34
CGary:不过大概是也没啥好挑剔了只能从这些地方找问题吧... 08/30 12:36
tony123839:做球给下一棒也要下一棒够威阿..如果他是在太空人哩= = 08/30 12:40
tyrone0923:Phillips把打点拿掉其实表现满一般的,就像前面有人说 08/30 12 :44
tyrone0923:的,你前面有秋跟Votto,你打点不会难看到哪去 08/30 12:44
WLR:没坏就不用修,何况这么好 08/30 12:44
TSbb:推文前可以想一下棒次喔 08/30 12:51
jet113102:每个人有他自己的打击策略 1 08/30 12:59
KISSFORMISS:大概每个都要像米糕才是合格的棒球员吧0.0 08/30 13 :04
corlos:美国周思齐 08/30 13:33
Pennyjr:Votto如果到运动家,应该就不会被说话吧,符合豆爷的策略 08 /30 13:55
ps20012001:XDDD..大概隔年就会被卖掉了一个人站全队1/3 薪资.. 08/30 13:58
blackdevil:轻易改变打击策略后如果造成成绩下滑,那这些专家又有 08/30 14: 00
blackdevil:得挑毛病了 08/30 14:00
starcry:纪律の佛陀 08/30 14:08
Kobelephants:找个强点的第四棒不就解决了 08/30 14:09
SergeIbaka9:楼上对吼怎么大家都没有想到 08/30 15:27
nolander:上垒才会赢啦叫那些批评的少废话! 08/30 16:44
geneaven:追打不喜欢的好打或勉强吃的下的坏球是好策略吗??不是吧? 08/30 18:07
jcto04:太盲的有人骂 太会选球的也有人骂XDDD 08/30 19:11
nbafrancis:Bruce 越打越回去不然他打Votto后面最适合 08/30 19:15
Sebastian:精准的选球机器 08/30 19:23
maxspeed150:Bruce学不会上垒.........他真的该跟Votto学选球 08/30 19:59
tony160079:荒谬一个BB是在无出局的情况下获得一在垒人员耶 08/30 20 :20
tony160079:你只是在嫌佛陀的打点能力低落吧 08/30 20:22
TSbb:文章是有探讨有人在垒跟得点圈的情况啦,但是BB还是一样有价 08/30 20:22
tony160079:我很不能认同这篇观点追打坏球造成不必要的出局不是 08/30 20:31
tony160079:更伤? 说穿了就是这作者想要看他大棒清垒吧 08/30 20:32
maxspeed150:楼上要不要再把这篇重读一次 08/30 20:45
Guerrieri:会有人责备Votto应该是觉得他可以打更好而不是只有BB 08/30 20 :48
Guerrieri:但是这就他打击策略阿XDD 08/30 20:49
evilvens: 08/30 21:22
tony160079:对不起我眼包 不过我还是觉得佛陀他的策略比较好 08/31 02:29
spppeter:结论:飞利浦保护不了 Votto 08/31 09:20
KOBEIS87:老虎买他放卡布前面吧(误) 08/31 19:26
ClutchShot:能上垒的球员还要被嫌真是....找个强打摆他后面解决! 09/01 10:04          。 To give a face to the pro-swing crowd, here’s Dusty Baker: “The name of the game is, ‘He who crosses home plate the most wins.’ So you ’ve got to have somebody to cross home plate, and you’ve got to have somebody help him cross home plate.” Baker makes it clear that he wants to see Votto be the latter guy more often. “He’s done it before,” he said. “It’s not like he hasn’t done it before. ” Baker说:(球赛)就是谁得比较多分,谁就获胜。但是如果我并不觉得这球值得出棒,之后的挥棒结果可 能会更棒